American Research Group has posted tonight its latest poll for the Wisconsin primary, with Gen. Clark not included. Looks like it could be another rout.
American Research Group has posted tonight its latest poll for the Wisconsin primary, with Gen. Clark not included. Looks like it could be another rout.
well, at least no one is willing to drop out after WI. that would be so … reality-based.
What I find interesting about the poll is which way the Clark supporters and undecideds broke between the two polls. Clark was at 15% in the previous poll and undecideds were at 21%. This time, Clark was not included and the undecideds dropped to 16%. So 20% of voters picked a candidate other than Clark. Of those, 12% went to Kerry, 6% to Edwards, and 2% to Dean. What that says to me is that the Clark voters were not anti-Kerry, they were pro-Clark. This is bad news for Edwards, and to some extent Dean. If there had been a pre-existing anti-Kerry vote out there that was being divided by 3, Clark dropping out would presumably have helped Edwards (and maybe Dean). But that doesn’t seem to be what the numbers reflect.